Characterization of the Row Geometric Mean Ranking with a Group Consensus Axiom

An axiomatic approach is applied to the problem of extracting a ranking of the alternatives from a pairwise comparison ratio matrix. The ordering induced by row geometric mean method is proved to be uniquely determined by three independent axioms, anonymity (independence of the labelling of alternatives), responsiveness (a kind of monotonicity property) and aggregation invariance, which requires the preservation of group consensus, that is, the pairwise ranking between two alternatives should remain unchanged if unanimous individual preferences are combined by geometric mean.     

The international business cycle as intertemporal coordination failure

Where investments are irreversible and the future is uncertain, people in two countries can make investment decisions that turn out to be mutually inconsistent. I argue that this intertemporal coordination failure explains international business cycles in a two-currency-area setting with a floating foreign exchange rate. The sequence of events starts with an expansionary domestic monetary shock, which decreases the domestic real interest rate. Facing low transactions costs, people spend the new money relatively early in the foreign exchange market and in the foreign market for loanable funds. Domestic monetary expansion thereby changes the relative prices of domestic and foreign goods and also of goods of earlier and later stages of production. The relative price changes lead to intertemporal and international coordination failures once the monetary expansion ends and relative prices change. Domestic monetary policy thereby causes the comovement across different currency areas we observe of business cycles.     

Making Drones to Kill Civilians: Is it Ethical?

A drone industry has emerged in the US, initially funded almost exclusively for military applications. There are now also other uses both governmental and commercial (in the US and abroad). Many military drones are still being made, however, especially for surveillance and targeted killings. Regarding the latter, this essay calls into question their legality and morality. It recognizes that the issues are complex and controversial, but less so as to the killing of non-combatant civilians. The government using drones for targeted killings maintains secrecy and appeals to non-traditional justifications. Most scholars who assess these killer drone practices support citizen immunity, either by favoring a modified just war theory that prioritizes civilians’ right to life or by challenging official deviations from applicable laws. They accordingly declare such killing immoral if not a war crime. The manufacturers of these killer drones are not themselves the killers, but they are abetters, i.e., sine qua non facilitators. So, I argue that any company concerned about its corporate social responsibility should cease manufacturing them.     

Campaign dynamics of cognitive accessibility of political judgments: measuring the impact of campaigns and campaign events using response latencies in two German rolling cross section studies

Do campaigns matter? Based on two rolling cross-section computer-assisted telephone surveys conducted in the run-up to the 2009 and 2013 German Federal Election, we test whether we can detect campaign effects on the accessibility of voters’ judgments: how do response latencies of political judgments evolve over the course of campaigns? The study uses response latencies, i.e. the standardized time it takes respondents to answer a survey question, as a proxy measurement of cognitive accessibility of political judgments. If campaigns do help voters to make up their minds, we should be able to observe changes at the implicit level of response latencies. Do people answer questions about their voting behavior and political attitudes faster as Election Day comes closer? Our results suggest that attitudes towards candidates and voting intentions become more cognitively accessible during campaigns whereas the accessibility of party identification is conditional on the contextual features of campaigns. In addition we find specific short-term effects of TV debates.     

The multiple filter test for change point detection in time series

A framework for the detection of change points in the expectation in sequences of random variables is presented. Specifically, we investigate time series with general distributional assumptions that may show an unknown number of change points in the expectation occurring on multiple time scales and that may also contain change points in other parameters. To that end we propose a multiple filter test (MFT) that tests the null hypothesis of constant expectation and, in case of rejection of the null hypothesis, an algorithm that estimates the change points.The MFT has three important benefits. First, it allows for general distributional assumptions in the underlying model, assuming piecewise sequences of i.i.d. random variables, where also relaxations with regard to identical distribution or independence are possible. Second, it uses a MOSUM type statistic and an asymptotic setting in which the MOSUM process converges weakly to a functional of a Brownian motion which is then used to simulate the rejection threshold of the statistical test. This approach enables a simultaneous application of multiple MOSUM processes which improves the detection of change points that occur on different time scales. Third, we also show that the method is practically robust against changes in other distributional parameters such as the variance or higher order moments which might occur with or even without a change in expectation. A function implementing the described test and change point estimation is available in the R package MFT.     

What do professional forecasters actually predict?

This paper studies what professional forecasters predict. We use spectral analysis and state space modeling to decompose economic time series into trend, business cycle, and irregular components. We examine which components are captured by professional forecasters by regressing their forecasts on the estimated components extracted from both the spectral analysis and the state space model. For both decomposition methods, we find that, in the short run, the Survey of Professional Forecasters can predict almost all of the variation in the time series due to the trend and the business cycle, but that the forecasts contain little or no significant information about the variation in the irregular component.     

A global approach to the analysis of user behavior in mobile payment systems in the new electronic environment

Mobile devices and social media have led to a profound revolution of modern society, obliging many companies to reorient their sales systems towards more successful commercial formats (mobile commerce and social commerce). The mobile payment, for instance, as an emerging and supplementary service to these new commercial formats, is now undergoing the adoption process. Mobile payment has long been discussed, but it has not yet reached the usage levels expected by the different mass market players (financial institutions, telephone operators, etc.) in Western societies. The purpose of this paper is to analyze users’ acceptance of mobile payment systems on social networks. In order to explain acceptance, we have integrated trust and perceived risk into the traditional TAM model. To complete this study, we have established the decisive factors of this payment system by analyzing user’s gender, age and experience level. The study was conducted through an online survey among a national panel composed by 2.012 social network users. The results of this research support previous studies and provide alternatives for companies to consolidate this new business model by means of the new technical developments.